TL;DR: Solar Cycle 25 has exceeded predictions. SFI readings above 200 and sunspot numbers regularly topping 180 mean HF is wide open — 10 meters included. If you're not on the air right now, you're missing the best conditions since 2001.

The Numbers Don't Lie

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center originally forecast Solar Cycle 25 would be modest — a smoothed sunspot number peak around 115. They were wrong. Spectacularly wrong.

As of mid-2026, we're seeing:

  • Solar Flux Index (SFI): consistently between 180-230, with spikes above 250
  • Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN): 175+ and still climbing
  • 10.7 cm radio flux: tracking well above the revised predictions
  • X-class flares: 8 so far this year (compared to 3 total in 2023)

The revised consensus puts the cycle peak somewhere in late 2025 through mid-2026. Some solar physicists think we haven't peaked yet. Either way, this is a big one — comparable to Cycle 23 in magnitude.

What This Means for Each Band

10 Meters (28 MHz)

Wide open. Almost daily. I worked Japan from the East Coast on 5 watts last Tuesday at 3pm local. The band is alive from sunrise to well past sunset, and nighttime openings to South America are common. If you have a Technician license and haven't tried 10 meters yet, now is your chance. This won't last forever.

12 and 15 Meters (24/21 MHz)

Absolute workhorses right now. 15 meters has been producing worldwide openings for 12+ hours daily. 12 meters — often overlooked because of WARC restrictions — is delivering DX that rivals 20 meters at a fraction of the QRM.

17 and 20 Meters (18/14 MHz)

20 meters is 20 meters. Always reliable, now even more so. But 17 meters deserves special attention. The band is open when 20 is too congested, and the narrower bandwidth means less competition for DX. Check it before reflexively going to 14.074 for FT8.

30 and 40 Meters (10/7 MHz)

Here's the counterintuitive part: these bands are actually worse for certain paths during peak solar activity. Increased D-layer absorption chews up signals on 40 meters during daytime. Nighttime propagation is still excellent, but you may notice more noise and shorter skip distances than a few years ago.

Why This Matters

Solar cycles average about 11 years. The last time HF conditions were this good, many current operators hadn't earned their tickets yet. This peak period — probably lasting through late 2027 — is a finite window.

For QRP operators, this is paradise. Signals that needed 100W and a beam during solar minimum now get through with 5W and a wire. For DXers, rare entities that were only workable with big stations are now accessible to modest setups. For contesters, expect record scores across the board.

But there's a flip side. Geomagnetic storms are also more frequent. We've had four G3+ events this year already, each one wiping out HF for 24-48 hours. Monitor the K-index before that rare DXpedition.

What You Should Do Right Now

  1. Get on 10 and 12 meters. Especially if you've never experienced a solar maximum on these bands. Simple antennas work brilliantly — a dipole at 20 feet will produce contacts on 10 meters that would make a low-band DXer weep.
  2. Try QRP. If you've been running 100W and a dipole, cut the power. You'll be amazed what 5-10W can do right now. Great time to pick up a KX2 or IC-705.
  3. Chase the gray line. Sunrise and sunset paths are producing insane propagation on the higher bands. Multi-hop paths that don't exist during solar minimum are routine now.
  4. Watch the solar weather. Bookmark spaceweather.com. Follow @ABORHF on X for real-time band condition reports. A sudden SFI drop from 220 to 140 tells you a coronal hole stream is inbound.
  5. Don't ignore the low bands. 80 and 160 meters will have their day again when the cycle declines. But for now, go high.

Looking Ahead

Based on historical cycle patterns, we likely have 12-18 months of excellent conditions remaining. The decline phase is usually more gradual than the rise, so even into 2027, expect above-average propagation. But the absolute best time? Right now. This summer. Get on the air.

The last operators who experienced these conditions on 10 meters — back in 2001-2002 — still talk about it. Don't be the ham who missed it because you were busy ordering a new antenna instead of using the one you have.